Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 24.363908 26.825465 29.603013 33.008509 37.127831 42.027069 48.419273
2025-02-09 21.041659 24.257254 28.196925 33.522671 40.785773 50.783681 66.534024
2025-02-16 18.689262 22.264438 26.918701 33.713693 43.981749 60.220799 91.694380
2025-02-23 16.780569 20.462613 25.472502 33.230848 45.983255 68.839686 123.929230
2025-03-02 15.478271 19.248159 24.575270 33.270443 48.746437 80.323370 179.915408
2025-03-09 14.368127 18.140478 23.631815 32.987075 50.814068 91.887899 268.574371
2025-03-16 13.427852 17.160406 22.726385 32.553954 52.431967 103.837082 426.468994
2025-03-23 12.655332 16.342992 21.958562 32.194873 54.078984 117.656775 794.060990
2025-03-30 12.018382 15.666532 21.328442 31.958462 55.928640 134.589254 2250.272463
2025-04-06 11.359756 14.902242 20.471895 31.145519 56.153121 146.347216 15701.363779
2025-04-13 11.172655 14.847217 20.780431 32.652053 62.903851 200.591277 NaN
2025-04-20 10.718701 14.335320 20.253277 32.358932 64.628047 234.029831 NaN
2025-04-27 10.363681 13.962946 19.944209 32.502683 67.873990 294.021727 NaN
2025-05-04 10.063431 13.658927 19.727981 32.817904 71.929753 392.448693 NaN
2025-05-11 9.759668 13.329165 19.434582 32.911764 75.373379 530.554548 NaN
2025-05-18 9.406683 12.897198 18.917522 32.405199 76.411520 658.886001 NaN
2025-05-25 9.144830 12.603273 18.635144 32.422365 79.652463 976.715101 NaN
2025-06-01 8.868647 12.270363 18.253520 32.141041 81.582155 1443.941112 NaN
2025-06-08 8.597149 11.932279 17.838612 31.721609 82.773627 2214.237732 NaN
2025-06-15 8.352198 11.628490 17.470171 31.375506 84.235694 4157.333036 NaN
2025-06-22 8.135771 11.364195 17.161767 31.148008 86.269899 15058.827308 NaN
2025-06-29 7.876465 11.015243 16.666726 30.368607 85.113335 44426.820101 NaN
2025-07-06 7.851187 11.071826 16.978294 31.811286 97.349383 NaN NaN